David Dunn: Week 10 Fantasy Picks

RIDE THE HOT STREAK

The players listed below -- three each at QB, RB and WR and one TE -- are performing well enough of late to be must-starts regardless of the match-ups.

Marion Barber III, RB, Cowboys (@ARI): He has a TD run in five of his past seven games, including a season-high two in Week 8. He has 56 carries for 296 yards (5.3 per carry, 42.3 per game) and six TDs in those seven contests, averaging 9.9 fantasy points.

Tiki Barber, RB, Giants (CHI): He has four 100-yard efforts and his first TD of the season in the past five weeks, averaging 15.2 fantasy points during that span. He has a total of 119 carries for 605 yards (5.1 per carry, 121.0 per game) in those contests.

Drew Brees, QB, Saints (@PIT): He has three consecutive games of three passing TDs and back-to-back 300-yard passing efforts, and in four of his past five games, he has 21+ fantasy points. For the season, Brees has four 300-yard efforts and 14 TDs in eight games.

Broncos defense (@OAK): The Broncos have 15+ fantasy points in four of their past five games, averaging 13.4 points allowed while totaling eight interceptions and six fumble recoveries. In their past seven games, Denver has averaged 11.4 points allowed.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins (KC): He has two 100-yard rushing efforts and three consecutive 100-yard scrimmage efforts in his past three games, with one TD in those contests. He has totaled 66 carries for 343 yards (5.2 per carry, 114.3 per game) in those games.

Marques Colston, WR, Saints (@PIT): He's one of only three players in NFL history with 700+ receiving yards through his first eight career games. He has back-to-back 100-yard receiving efforts and three in his past five, and has four TDs in his past three games.

Alge Crumpler, TE, Falcons (CLE): He has a TD in each of his past three games, and has 14 receptions for 236 yards and five TDs in those contests. That was good for 52 fantasy points, vaulting him into first among TEs in the category (75, 9.4 per game).

Damon Huard, QB, Chiefs (@MIA): He has passed for two-plus TDs in four of his past six games, and 200+ yards in four of those six games as well. In his last six games overall, he has averaged 225.0 passing yards and 14.2 fantasy points with 10 TD passes.

Jaguars defense (HOU): The Jaguars have back-to-back games with double-digit fantasy points, allowing 13 points combined in Weeks 8-9. They have two shutouts, both at home, and have totaled seven points allowed and 56 fantasy points in three home games.

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (@ARI): He has a TD pass in each of his past 4 games, and has three consecutive games of 15+ fantasy points. In his past three games, all starts, he has averaged 260.3 passing yards and 16.3 fantasy points with five TD passes.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers (@CIN): He's the league's leader with 14 total TDs, and 11 of them have come in his past four games. In his past two games, he has 43 carries for 355 yards (8.3 per carry, 177.5 per game) and five TDs, with nine runs of 10+ yards.

Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts (BUF): He has five TDs in his past four games and 122+ receiving yards in three of his past seven games. In his past three games, he has a combined 23 receptions for 350 yards and four TDs, totaling 62 fantasy points.

DAVID'S TAKE: Normally I wouldn't recommend using a running back who's not even the starter on his own team, but in the case of Marion Barber (and the Giants' Brandon Jacobs, for that matter), he gets enough work near the goal line to be worth flex consideration against weaker defenses. In touchdown-heavy leagues, I'd think about either back in weeks where their teams shouldn't have any trouble moving the ball, and this is one of those for Barber (probably not Jacobs, though). ... If Tiki Barber's matchup against the Bears' seventh-ranked rush defense concerns you because he has so much trouble reaching the end zone, keep in mind that the Dolphins' Ronnie Brown just managed a 29-carry, 157-yard (5.4 average) effort against Chicago in Week 9. Barber could easily make it back-to-back 100-yard rushing performances against the Bears. ... Based on how good the Raiders' offense made the Seahawks' defense look in Week 9 -- shutout, 185 net yards allowed, nine sacks -- the Broncos defense is one of my top plays of the week. Remember, Denver held Oakland to three points and 244 yards with four sacks in Week 6. ... It's nice to see Chiefs coach Herm Edwards finally talking up Huard as his potential starter for the remainder of the season, because the way Huard has played in Trent Green's absence, he deserves to keep the job for as long as he remains successful. You can be sure Huard knows he's on a short leash, though, so expect him to bring his best in Week 10 at Miami.

AVOID THE COLD SPELL

The players listed below -- three each at QB, RB and WR and one TE -- have struggled enough recently that they should be avoided whenever possible.

Nate Burleson, WR, Seahawks (STL): He's barely being involved in the offense, with three games of no receptions in his past four, and one catch in those four games overall. Only once all season did he manage more than one catch, and he had only one target in Week 9.

Reggie Bush, RB, Saints (@PIT): Though he leads all RBs in receptions (46), he has averaged only 2.6 yards per rushing attempt and 25.9 rushing yards per game all season. He also has 47 carries for 82 yards (1.7 average) and zero TDs in his past five games.

Rex Grossman, QB, Bears (@NYG): In two of his past three games, he has managed four fantasy points or fewer and been intercepted three-plus times (seven total). He has also averaged 228.0 passing yards with two TDs and seven interceptions in three road games this season.

Travis Henry, RB, Titans (BAL): Coming off back-to-back 100-yard rushing efforts leading into the bye, he managed a combined 34 carries for 96 yards (2.8 per carry, 48.0 per game) and zero TDs in his past two games. (And one was against the Texans.)

LaMont Jordan, RB, Raiders (DEN): He has managed only 16 carries for 84 yards and zero TDs in the past three weeks, including one missed game. He has only one game of better than eight fantasy points all season, and three games of 35 or fewer rushing yards.

Derrick Mason, WR, Ravens (@TEN): He hasn't scored a TD in any of his eight games, only once cracking double-digit fantasy points. He has 15 receptions for 169 yards (11.3 per catch, 33.8 per game) in his past five games, good for 15 fantasy points.

Deuce McAllister, RB, Saints (@PIT): He has only 20 carries for 43 yards (2.2 per carry, 21.5 per game) in his past two games (also 20 receiving yards), and for the season, he's managing only 60.9 rushing yards and 74.5 scrimmage yards per game.

Chad Pennington, QB, Jets (@NE): Since starting the season with back-to-back 300+ yard, two TD passing efforts, he has averaged only 155.5 passing yards with five TDs and seven interceptions in six games. He has fallen short of double-digit fantasy points three times.

Steelers defense (NO): The Steelers have registered a negative fantasy point total in two of their past three games, combining for 92 points allowed and only three interceptions in those contests. They have also cracked double-digit fantasy points only twice all season.

Ben Troupe, TE, Titans (BAL): He has only five receptions for 30 yards (6.0 per catch, 7.5 per game) and zero TDs in his past four games, totaling two fantasy points in those contests. He has been targeted only four times in his past two games.

Carnell Williams, RB, Buccaneers (@CAR): He has failed to find the end zone in five games since the bye week and seven of eight games for the season. In his past four games combined, he has 62 carries for 235 yards (3.8 per carry, 58.8 per game).

Troy Williamson, WR, Vikings (GB): He has failed to score a TD in any of his eight games this season, and has finished with four fantasy points or fewer in each of his past six games. He has only 15 receptions for 143 yards (23.8 per game) in those contests.

DAVID'S TAKE: Bush seems to be regressing as a runner, though his pass-catching skills shouldn't be questioned. It's probably going to take him his entire rookie season, and perhaps even part of his sophomore campaign, before he finally gets comfortable running the ball, and at this point, I'd only consider him when the matchup is favorable in point-per-reception leagues. This is not one of those weeks. ... Grossman's matchup at the Giants looks a little better with DE Michael Strahan sidelined, but he has officially slipped into the risky-play category following his terrible performances at Arizona in Week 6 and shaky effort against the Dolphins in Week 9. I'd call Grossman and Falcons' Mike Vick the two most difficult quarterbacks to forecast even facing great matchups, and I'm calling it a good week to sit Grossman to see how he bounces back from his most recent poor outing, not a time to roll the dice. ... Henry's owners are going to wish they had traded him during his bye week by the time the Sunday returns are in. ... Cadillac has been a real disappointment after entering the season a first-round pick in many owners' eyes. One has to wonder how he might have performed this season had QB Chris Simms not gotten hurt, but it happened, and now, with the treacherous Tampa Bay schedule, he's a guy I'd consider sitting if I had anyone else with an attractive matchup.

HISTORY LESSON

The following players have tremendous recent track records against their scheduled opponents, making them more appealing fantasy options for this week.

Marc Bulger, QB, Rams (@SEA): He has passed for 300+ yards in four consecutive games and five of his past six vs. the Seahawks (postseason incl.). In those past six games, he has averaged 316.7 passing yards with 12 TDs and seven interceptions.

David Carr, QB, Texans (@JAC): He has passed for 219+ yards in six of his past seven games vs. the Jaguars, completing a TD pass in each of his eight games vs. them. In his past three vs. the Jaguars, he has averaged 246.0 passing yards with five TDs.

Corey Dillon, RB, Patriots (NYJ): He has rushed for a TD in each of his past three games vs. the Jets, totaling four TDs in those contests. In five games vs. the Jets since joining the Patriots, he has 113 carries for 426 yards (3.8 per carry, 85.2 per game).

Donald Driver, WR, Packers (@MIN): He has a TD in each of his past three games vs. the Vikings, with four TDs total in those contests. He also has 31 receptions for 438 yards (14.1 per catch, 109.5 per game) in his past four games vs. the Vikings (postseason incl.)

Brett Favre, QB, Packers (@MIN): He has 47 career TD passes vs. the Vikings, his third most against any foe. He has passed for two-plus TDs in each of his past five vs. the Vikings, and has averaged 267.4 passing yards with 14 TDs and four interceptions.

Ahman Green, RB, Packers (@MIN): He has three 100-yard efforts and one-plus TD in seven of 10 career games vs. the Vikings. In those contests, he has combined for 852 rushing yards and 321 receiving yards (117.3 scrimmage yards per game) and nine total TDs.

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams (@SEA): He has a rushing TD in three of his past four games vs. the Seahawks, totaling 64 carries for 250 yards and three TDs. He also has 350 scrimmage yards (116.7 per game) in his past three games vs. the Seahawks.

Terrell Owens, WR, Cowboys (@ARI): He has two-plus TDs and 92+ receiving yards in two of his past three games vs. the Cardinals. He also has 25 receptions for 336 yards (13.4 per catch, 84.0 per game) and four TDs in four career games vs. the Cardinals.

Patriots defense (NYJ): The Patriots have held the Jets to seven or fewer points in three of their past five meetings, including in both home games. The Patriots have averaged 11.0 points and 243.8 yards allowed with 13 sacks and five interceptions in those five contests.

Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins (@PHI): He has rushed for a TD in each of his past three games vs. the Eagles, twice managing two TDs. In those contests, he has combined for 71 carries for 259 yards (3.6 per carry, 86.3 per game) and five TDs. AND I HATE HIM FOR IT!!!

Michael Vick, QB, Falcons (CLE): He has won each of his past seven starts vs. AFC foes, with 12 passing and two rushing TDs in those contests. He has also averaged 206.8 passing yards with 10 TDs in his past five games vs. AFC teams.

Ernest Wilford, WR, Jaguars (HOU): He has 10 receptions for 233 yards and two TDs in his past three games vs. the Texans. He also has 18 catches for 305 yards and four TDs in his past seven games in which David Garrard has started at quarterback.

DAVID'S TAKE: Besides the strong track record against the Seahawks, Bulger has been one of the most effective fantasy quarterbacks all season. He has 13 TDs compared to only one interception, and he has passed for 300-plus yards and/or two or more TDs in each of his past six games. ... Just because I put Carr on the list doesn't mean that I'd play him against the Jaguars. Jacksonville's pass defense ranks seventh and has the second-most interceptions (12), but if you believe solely in track records when making your weekly lineup decisions, there they are. ... I'd start not only Dillon, but also Laurene Maroney against the Jets. New York ranks 30th against the run and has allowed an NFL-high 13 rushing TDs, and don't forget that Maroney scored his first NFL TD in Week 2 against the Jets, while Dillon had a score of his own. ... Vick's stinker of an outing in Week 9 against the soft Detroit secondary was inexplicable, but he's still offering up enough points in most weeks to be a useful starter in most cases. My thinking: AFC teams don't see him nearly as often, and therefore aren't quite as prepared for his multi-faceted attack, which would help explain his incredible level of success against them.

WEATHER REPORT

Up-to-the-minute conditions can be found on The Weather Channel's website.

Precipitation in the forecast (40-percent chance or worse): Rams at Seahawks (50 percent), Jets at Patriots (40 percent, wind of 20-plus mph) and Saints at Steelers (40 percent). Redskins at Eagles and Bears at Giants could see winds of 20-plus mph.

Cold temperatures (40 degrees or lower): 49ers at Lions could be in the high 30s.

Hot temperatures (80 degrees or higher): Chiefs at Dolphins could be in the low 80s.

Weatherproof games (safest playing conditions): Browns at Falcons (Georgia Dome), Packers at Vikings (Metrodome), 49ers at Lions (Ford Field), Bills at Colts (RCA Dome), Cowboys at Cardinals (Cardinals Stadium).

KICKERS IN DOMES

As kickers are as a whole fairly unpredictable, weather can play a big part in determining which ones to use each week. Those who kick indoors are safest from the elements and therefore least likely to hurt you, making the names below more attractive plays. Statistics listed are career numbers indoors, unless otherwise noted (G: games, FGpct: field-goal percentage; XPTpct: extra-point percentage; ppg: points per game).

Morten Andersen, Falcons (CLE): 94 GM, 80.9 FGpct, 100.0 XPTpct, 7.09 ppg.
Phil Dawson, Browns (@ATL): Six GM, 91.7 FGpct, 100.0 XPTpct, 6.67 ppg.
Jason Hanson, Lions (SF): 123 games, 84.0 FGpct, 99.2 XPTpct, 6.85 ppg.
Rian Lindell, Bills (@IND): Five games, 71.4 FGpct, 100.0 XPTpct, 5.20 ppg.
Ryan Longwell, Vikings (GB): 28 games, 86.7 FGpct, 98.5 XPTpct, 7.86 ppg.
Joe Nedney, 49ers (@DET): 15 games, 86.1 FGpct, 100.0 XPTpct, 7.80 ppg.
Neil Rackers, Cardinals (DAL): 16 games, 85.7 FGpct, 100.0 XPTpct, 6.38 ppg.
Dave Rayner, Packers (@MIN): Nine games, 50.0 FGpct, 100.0 XPTpct, 0.78 ppg.
Mike Vanderjagt, Cowboys (@ARI): 71 games, 87.6 FGpct, 99.0 XPTpct, 8.20 ppg.
Adam Vinatieri, Colts (BUF): 18 games, 95.2 FGpct, 100.0 XPTpct, 9.28 ppg.