David Dunn: Week 10 Fantasy Picks

RIDE THE HOT STREAK

The players listed below -- three each at QB, RB and WR and one TE -- are performing well enough of late to be must-starts regardless of the match-ups.

Marion Barber III, RB, Cowboys (@ARI): He has a TD run in five of his past seven games, including a season-high two in Week 8. He has 56 carries for 296 yards (5.3 per carry, 42.3 per game) and six TDs in those seven contests, averaging 9.9 fantasy points.

Tiki Barber, RB, Giants (CHI): He has four 100-yard efforts and his first TD of the season in the past five weeks, averaging 15.2 fantasy points during that span. He has a total of 119 carries for 605 yards (5.1 per carry, 121.0 per game) in those contests.

Drew Brees, QB, Saints (@PIT): He has three consecutive games of three passing TDs and back-to-back 300-yard passing efforts, and in four of his past five games, he has 21+ fantasy points. For the season, Brees has four 300-yard efforts and 14 TDs in eight games.

Broncos defense (@OAK): The Broncos have 15+ fantasy points in four of their past five games, averaging 13.4 points allowed while totaling eight interceptions and six fumble recoveries. In their past seven games, Denver has averaged 11.4 points allowed.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins (KC): He has two 100-yard rushing efforts and three consecutive 100-yard scrimmage efforts in his past three games, with one TD in those contests. He has totaled 66 carries for 343 yards (5.2 per carry, 114.3 per game) in those games.

Marques Colston, WR, Saints (@PIT): He's one of only three players in NFL history with 700+ receiving yards through his first eight career games. He has back-to-back 100-yard receiving efforts and three in his past five, and has four TDs in his past three games.

Alge Crumpler, TE, Falcons (CLE): He has a TD in each of his past three games, and has 14 receptions for 236 yards and five TDs in those contests. That was good for 52 fantasy points, vaulting him into first among TEs in the category (75, 9.4 per game).

Damon Huard, QB, Chiefs (@MIA): He has passed for two-plus TDs in four of his past six games, and 200+ yards in four of those six games as well. In his last six games overall, he has averaged 225.0 passing yards and 14.2 fantasy points with 10 TD passes.

Jaguars defense (HOU): The Jaguars have back-to-back games with double-digit fantasy points, allowing 13 points combined in Weeks 8-9. They have two shutouts, both at home, and have totaled seven points allowed and 56 fantasy points in three home games.

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (@ARI): He has a TD pass in each of his past 4 games, and has three consecutive games of 15+ fantasy points. In his past three games, all starts, he has averaged 260.3 passing yards and 16.3 fantasy points with five TD passes.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers (@CIN): He's the league's leader with 14 total TDs, and 11 of them have come in his past four games. In his past two games, he has 43 carries for 355 yards (8.3 per carry, 177.5 per game) and five TDs, with nine runs of 10+ yards.

Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts (BUF): He has five TDs in his past four games and 122+ receiving yards in three of his past seven games. In his past three games, he has a combined 23 receptions for 350 yards and four TDs, totaling 62 fantasy points.

DAVID'S TAKE: Normally I wouldn't recommend using a running back who's not even the starter on his own team, but in the case of Marion Barber (and the Giants' Brandon Jacobs, for that matter), he gets enough work near the goal line to be worth flex consideration against weaker defenses. In touchdown-heavy leagues, I'd think about either back in weeks where their teams shouldn't have any trouble moving the ball, and this is one of those for Barber (probably not Jacobs, though). ... If Tiki Barber's matchup against the Bears' seventh-ranked rush defense concerns you because he has so much trouble reaching the end zone, keep in mind that the Dolphins' Ronnie Brown just managed a 29-carry, 157-yard (5.4 average) effort against Chicago in Week 9. Barber could easily make it back-to-back 100-yard rushing performances against the Bears. ... Based on how good the Raiders' offense made the Seahawks' defense look in Week 9 -- shutout, 185 net yards allowed, nine sacks -- the Broncos defense is one of my top plays of the week. Remember, Denver held Oakland to three points and 244 yards with four sacks in Week 6. ... It's nice to see Chiefs coach Herm Edwards finally talking up Huard as his potential starter for the remainder of the season, because the way Huard has played in Trent Green's absence, he deserves to keep the job for as long as he remains successful. You can be sure Huard knows he's on a short leash, though, so expect him to bring his best in Week 10 at Miami.

AVOID THE COLD SPELL

The players listed below -- three each at QB, RB and WR and one TE -- have struggled enough recently that they should be avoided whenever possible.

Nate Burleson, WR, Seahawks (STL): He's barely being involved in the offense, with three games of no receptions in his past four, and one catch in those four games overall. Only once all season did he manage more than one catch, and he had only one target in Week 9.

Reggie Bush, RB, Saints (@PIT): Though he leads all RBs in receptions (46), he has averaged only 2.6 yards per rushing attempt and 25.9 rushing yards per game all season. He also has 47 carries for 82 yards (1.7 average) and zero TDs in his past five games.

Rex Grossman, QB, Bears (@NYG): In two of his past three games, he has managed four fantasy points or fewer and been intercepted three-plus times (seven total). He has also averaged 228.0 passing yards with two TDs and seven interceptions in three road games this season.

Travis Henry, RB, Titans (BAL): Coming off back-to-back 100-yard rushing efforts leading into the bye, he managed a combined 34 carries for 96 yards (2.8 per carry, 48.0 per game) and zero TDs in his past two games. (And one was against the Texans.)

LaMont Jordan, RB, Raiders (DEN): He has managed only 16 carries for 84 yards and zero TDs in the past three weeks, including one missed game. He has only one game of better than eight fantasy points all season, and three games of 35 or fewer rushing yards.

Derrick Mason, WR, Ravens (@TEN): He hasn't scored a TD in any of his eight games, only once cracking double-digit fantasy points. He has 15 receptions for 169 yards (11.3 per catch, 33.8 per game) in his past five games, good for 15 fantasy points.

Deuce McAllister, RB, Saints (@PIT): He has only 20 carries for 43 yards (2.2 per carry, 21.5 per game) in his past two games (also 20 receiving yards), and for the season, he's managing only 60.9 rushing yards and 74.5 scrimmage yards per game.

Chad Pennington, QB, Jets (@NE): Since starting the season with back-to-back 300+ yard, two TD passing efforts, he has averaged only 155.5 passing yards with five TDs and seven interceptions in six games. He has fallen short of double-digit fantasy points three times.

Steelers defense (NO): The Steelers have registered a negative fantasy point total in two of their past three games, combining for 92 points allowed and only three interceptions in those contests. They have also cracked double-digit fantasy points only twice all season.

Ben Troupe, TE, Titans (BAL): He has only five receptions for 30 yards (6.0 per catch, 7.5 per game) and zero TDs in his past four games, totaling two fantasy points in those contests. He has been targeted only four times in his past two games.

Carnell Williams, RB, Buccaneers (@CAR): He has failed to find the end zone in five games since the bye week and seven of eight games for the season. In his past four games combined, he has 62 carries for 235 yards (3.8 per carry, 58.8 per game).

Troy Williamson, WR, Vikings (GB): He has failed to score a TD in any of his eight games this season, and has finished with four fantasy points or fewer in each of his past six games. He has only 15 receptions for 143 yards (23.8 per game) in those contests.

DAVID'S TAKE: Bush seems to be regressing as a runner, though his pass-catching skills shouldn't be questioned. It's probably going to take him his entire rookie season, and perhaps even part of his sophomore campaign, before he finally gets comfortable running the ball, and at this point, I'd only consider him when the matchup is favorable in point-per-reception leagues. This is not one of those weeks. ... Grossman's matchup at the Giants looks a little better with DE Michael Strahan sidelined, but he has officially slipped into the risky-play category following his terrible performances at Arizona in Week 6 and shaky effort against the Dolphins in Week 9. I'd call Grossman and Falcons' Mike Vick the two most difficult quarterbacks to forecast even facing great matchups, and I'm calling it a good week to sit Grossman to see how he bounces back from his most recent poor outing, not a time to roll the dice. ... Henry's owners are going to wish they had traded him during his bye week by the time the Sunday returns are in. ... Cadillac has been a real disappointment after entering the season a first-round pick in many owners' eyes. One has to wonder how he might have performed this season had QB Chris Simms not gotten hurt, but it happened, and now, with the treacherous Tampa Bay schedule, he's a guy I'd consider sitting if I had anyone else with an attractive matchup.

HISTORY LESSON

The following players have tremendous recent track records against their scheduled opponents, making them more appealing fantasy options for this week.

Marc Bulger, QB, Rams (@SEA): He has passed for 300+ yards in four consecutive games and five of his past six vs. the Seahawks (postseason incl.). In those past six games, he has averaged 316.7 passing yards with 12 TDs and seven interceptions.

David Carr, QB, Texans (@JAC): He has passed for 219+ yards in six of his past seven games vs. the Jaguars, completing a TD pass in each of his eight games vs. them. In his past three vs. the Jaguars, he has averaged 246.0 passing yards with five TDs.

Corey Dillon, RB, Patriots (NYJ): He has rushed for a TD in each of his past three games vs. the Jets, totaling four TDs in those contests. In five games vs. the Jets since joining the Patriots, he has 113 carries for 426 yards (3.8 per carry, 85.2 per game).

Donald Driver, WR, Packers (@MIN): He has a TD in each of his past three games vs. the Vikings, with four TDs total in those contests. He also has 31 receptions for 438 yards (14.1 per catch, 109.5 per game) in his past four games vs. the Vikings (postseason incl.)

Brett Favre, QB, Packers (@MIN): He has 47 career TD passes vs. the Vikings, his third most against any foe. He has passed for two-plus TDs in each of his past five vs. the Vikings, and has averaged 267.4 passing yards with 14 TDs and four interceptions.

Ahman Green, RB, Packers (@MIN): He has three 100-yard efforts and one-plus TD in seven of 10 career games vs. the Vikings. In those contests, he has combined for 852 rushing yards and 321 receiving yards (117.3 scrimmage yards per game) and nine total TDs.

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams (@SEA): He has a rushing TD in three of his past four games vs. the Seahawks, totaling 64 carries for 250 yards and three TDs. He also has 350 scrimmage yards (116.7 per game) in his past three games vs. the Seahawks.

Terrell Owens, WR, Cowboys (@ARI): He has two-plus TDs and 92+ receiving yards in two of his past three games vs. the Cardinals. He also has 25 receptions for 336 yards (13.4 per catch, 84.0 per game) and four TDs in four career games vs. the Cardinals.

Patriots defense (NYJ): The Patriots have held the Jets to seven or fewer points in three of their past five meetings, including in both home games. The Patriots have averaged 11.0 points and 243.8 yards allowed with 13 sacks and five interceptions in those five contests.

Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins (@PHI): He has rushed for a TD in each of his past three games vs. the Eagles, twice managing two TDs. In those contests, he has combined for 71 carries for 259 yards (3.6 per carry, 86.3 per game) and five TDs. AND I HATE HIM FOR IT!!!

Michael Vick, QB, Falcons (CLE): He has won each of his past seven starts vs. AFC foes, with 12 passing and two rushing TDs in those contests. He has also averaged 206.8 passing yards with 10 TDs in his past five games vs. AFC teams.

Ernest Wilford, WR, Jaguars (HOU): He has 10 receptions for 233 yards and two TDs in his past three games vs. the Texans. He also has 18 catches for 305 yards and four TDs in his past seven games in which David Garrard has started at quarterback.

DAVID'S TAKE: Besides the strong track record against the Seahawks, Bulger has been one of the most effective fantasy quarterbacks all season. He has 13 TDs compared to only one interception, and he has passed for 300-plus yards and/or two or more TDs in each of his past six games. ... Just because I put Carr on the list doesn't mean that I'd play him against the Jaguars. Jacksonville's pass defense ranks seventh and has the second-most interceptions (12), but if you believe solely in track records when making your weekly lineup decisions, there they are. ... I'd start not only Dillon, but also Laurene Maroney against the Jets. New York ranks 30th against the run and has allowed an NFL-high 13 rushing TDs, and don't forget that Maroney scored his first NFL TD in Week 2 against the Jets, while Dillon had a score of his own. ... Vick's stinker of an outing in Week 9 against the soft Detroit secondary was inexplicable, but he's still offering up enough points in most weeks to be a useful starter in most cases. My thinking: AFC teams don't see him nearly as often, and therefore aren't quite as prepared for his multi-faceted attack, which would help explain his incredible level of success against them.

WEATHER REPORT

Up-to-the-minute conditions can be found on The Weather Channel's website.

Precipitation in the forecast (40-percent chance or worse): Rams at Seahawks (50 percent), Jets at Patriots (40 percent, wind of 20-plus mph) and Saints at Steelers (40 percent). Redskins at Eagles and Bears at Giants could see winds of 20-plus mph.

Cold temperatures (40 degrees or lower): 49ers at Lions could be in the high 30s.

Hot temperatures (80 degrees or higher): Chiefs at Dolphins could be in the low 80s.

Weatherproof games (safest playing conditions): Browns at Falcons (Georgia Dome), Packers at Vikings (Metrodome), 49ers at Lions (Ford Field), Bills at Colts (RCA Dome), Cowboys at Cardinals (Cardinals Stadium).

KICKERS IN DOMES

As kickers are as a whole fairly unpredictable, weather can play a big part in determining which ones to use each week. Those who kick indoors are safest from the elements and therefore least likely to hurt you, making the names below more attractive plays. Statistics listed are career numbers indoors, unless otherwise noted (G: games, FGpct: field-goal percentage; XPTpct: extra-point percentage; ppg: points per game).

Morten Andersen, Falcons (CLE): 94 GM, 80.9 FGpct, 100.0 XPTpct, 7.09 ppg.
Phil Dawson, Browns (@ATL): Six GM, 91.7 FGpct, 100.0 XPTpct, 6.67 ppg.
Jason Hanson, Lions (SF): 123 games, 84.0 FGpct, 99.2 XPTpct, 6.85 ppg.
Rian Lindell, Bills (@IND): Five games, 71.4 FGpct, 100.0 XPTpct, 5.20 ppg.
Ryan Longwell, Vikings (GB): 28 games, 86.7 FGpct, 98.5 XPTpct, 7.86 ppg.
Joe Nedney, 49ers (@DET): 15 games, 86.1 FGpct, 100.0 XPTpct, 7.80 ppg.
Neil Rackers, Cardinals (DAL): 16 games, 85.7 FGpct, 100.0 XPTpct, 6.38 ppg.
Dave Rayner, Packers (@MIN): Nine games, 50.0 FGpct, 100.0 XPTpct, 0.78 ppg.
Mike Vanderjagt, Cowboys (@ARI): 71 games, 87.6 FGpct, 99.0 XPTpct, 8.20 ppg.
Adam Vinatieri, Colts (BUF): 18 games, 95.2 FGpct, 100.0 XPTpct, 9.28 ppg.

Weekly Fantasy update - with David Dunn

This is the first piece by David Dunn, a fantasy mastermind (or is it nutjob?) who is currently ranked #42 on ESPN's fantasy leagues' top 50. Let's peak into David's mind...

Bye weeks: Cardinals, Eagles, Jets, Panthers.

RIDE THE HOT STREAK

The players listed below -- three each at QB, RB and WR and one TE -- are performing well enough of late to be must-starts regardless of the match-ups.

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots (IND): He has a TD pass in each of his past 13 games (postseason incl.), and has two or more passing TDs in each of his past four games. He has also averaged 223.8 passing yards with 10 TDs and two interceptions in those past four games.

Marques Colston, WR, Saints (@TB): He has a TD in back-to-back games, with three total TDs and 203 receiving yards during that span. He also has two 100-yard efforts and 18 receptions for 373 yards (20.7 per catch, 93.3 ypg) and four TDs in his past four games.

Giants defense (HOU): The Giants have held opponents to a combined 6 points in their past two home games, combining for 21 fantasy points. They've also registered double-digit fantasy points in four straight gamess, and have eight interceptions in their past five games.

Darrell Jackson, WR, Seahawks (OAK): He has a TD reception of 40+ yards in each of his past three games, and he has six TDs in his past six games overall. In those six contests, he has combined for 31 receptions for 540 yards (17.4 per catch, 90.0 ypg).

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans (@NYG): He has eight or more receptions in each of his past five games, combining for 46 receptions for 512 yards and three TDs in those contests. He also has six 100-yard efforts and 90 receptions for 1,098 yards and six TDs in his past 13 games.

Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs (@STL): He's coming off his best game of the season, a 155-yard rushing effort with four total TDs in Week 8. He has back-to-back 100-yard rushing games, and in his past five games, he has 658 scrimmage yards and 10 total TDs.

Thomas Jones, RB, Bears (MIA): He has two 100-yard rushing efforts in his past three games, and three TDs in his past four games. In those four contests, he has combined for 79 carries for 362 yards 4.6 per carry, 90.5 ypg). His 111 rushing yards in Week 8 were a season high.

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers (CLE): He has a passing TD in each of his seven games this season, and seven TDs in his past four games combined. In those four contests, he has averaged 262.5 passing yards, and in his seven games this season, he has averaged 219.7 passing yards.

Fred Taylor, RB, Jaguars (TEN): He has two 100-yard efforts and two TDs in his past three games, with 52 carries for 298 yards (5.7 per carry, 99.3 ypg) in those contests. For the season, Taylor is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and 79.1 ypg.

Michael Vick, QB, Falcons (@DET): He has passed for three or more TDs in each of his past two games, combining for 523 passing yards, seven TDs and two interceptions in those contests. He's also averaging 207.5 passing yards and 66.0 rushing yards in his past four games.

DAVID'S TAKE: Regardless of Joe Horn's return to form as an adequate fantasy option, Colston remains QB Drew Brees' favorite target, and the one thrown to most often in the New Orleans offense. If the Saints' passing game runs cold, and it could this week against the Bucs' 11th-ranked pass defense, it's probably going to be Horn whose numbers suffer first. Colston's the one who's still a must-start on that team. ... The Giants might not generate a huge number of turnovers, keeping them out of the upper echelon of fantasy defenses, but it's hard to overlook that the team has held opponents to 10 points or fewer in four of its past eight games at the Meadowlands. Against the Texans, it's another good week to spot-start New York's D. ... There's the Larry Johnson fantasy owners were expecting when they made him the No. 1 overall pick in preseason drafts. It just goes to show you, have faith in your top picks. ... Rivers has been remarkably effective for such an inexperienced player this season, and while I compared him to the rookie-year version of QB Ben Roethlisberger a few weeks ago, it's clear he's a more productive fantasy player than that already. He's doing now what I expected a healthy Roethlisberger might have done this season, and there's no reason to expect that won't continue. ... Whether you believe in Vick's hot streak or not, he's among the best fantasy starts of the week facing the Lions. Detroit's pass defense ranks 29th (237.6 ypg) and has allowed 14 TDs in seven games, and if Vick's really as good as he has looked the past two weeks, he should be every bit as successful in Week 9 as he was in those games.

AVOID THE COLD SPELL

The players listed below -- three each at QB, RB and WR and one TE -- have struggled enough recently that they should be avoided whenever possible.

Braylon Edwards, WR, Browns (@SD): He has failed to score a TD in any of his past three games, combining for seven receptions for 54 yards in those contests. He was also only targeted four times in Week 8, down from seven in Week 7 and 10 in Week 6.

Brad Johnson, QB, Vikings (@SF): He's coming off his worst game of the season, a 185-yard, zero TD, three interception effort in Week 8. For the season, he has averaged 212.0 passing yards with four TDs and seven interceptions, not once enjoying a two TD game.

LaMont Jordan, RB, Raiders (@SEA): He has failed to crack the 100-yard rushing plateau in his past three games, and has fallen short in 12 of his past 14 contests. In those 14 games, he has combined for 248 carries for 928 yards (3.7 per carry, 66.3 ypg) and three TDs.

Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots (IND): He has failed to score a TD in any of his past three games, combining for 34 carries for 101 yards (3.0 per carry, 33.7 ypg) in those contests. He has also managed only eight carries in each of his past two games.

Heath Miller, TE, Steelers (DEN): He has yet to top three receptions in any game this season, and in his past six games, has combined for 11 receptions for 97 yards and one TD. He also has three TDs in his past 19 games (postseason incl.), averaging 2.2 receptions per games.

Maurice Morris, RB, Seahawks (OAK): In his four games since taking over the starting job from Shaun Alexander, he has 63 carries for 183 yards (2.9 per carry, 45.8 ypg) and zero TDs. He has also averaged 2.9 yards per carry in his past 12 regular-season games.

Jake Plummer, QB, Broncos (@PIT): He has gone 17 consecutive games without a 300-yard passing effort (postseason incl.), with only two 2-TD performances. In seven games this season, he has averaged 165.4 passing yards with five TDs and seven interceptions.

Dominic Rhodes, RB, Colts (@NE): He's coming off a season-low three-carry, zero-yard performance in Week 8, and he has 16 carries for 26 yards and zero TDs in his past two games. For the season, he has averaged only 3.1 yards per carry and 42.7 ypg.

Rod Smith, WR, Broncos (@PIT): He has failed to score a TD in his past three games, combining for nine receptions for 109 yards in those contests. He also hasn't topped 100 yards receiving in his past nine games, with 30 catches for 335 yards and a TD in those contests.

Reggie Williams, WR, Jaguars (TEN): He has combined for only one reception for 13 yards and zero TDs in his past two games, being targeted only seven times in those contests. He also has only 11 receptions in his past five games, combining for 27 targets in those contests.

DAVID'S TAKE: While the QB Charlie Frye and TE Kellen Winslow connection still seems to be working effectively enough to make Winslow a reliable weekly fantasy start, the Frye-Edwards link is the one that has slumped terribly of late. Until Edwards picks up his performance, keep him reserved, but it's likely to take a much better matchup than his one against the Chargers for that to happen. Of course, there aren't many weak pass defenses coming up on the Cleveland schedule, so keep that in mind if you're counting on Edwards for receiver depth. ... Jordan keeps starting but RB Justin Fargas keeps getting the bulk of the carries due to the former's back problems, and while it sounds like Jordan's going to be the primary back on Sunday, I'm not convinced he's healthy enough to get 15-plus touches. I had said in the past that Jordan is too good a player for his fantasy owners to reserve, but with him struggling to get even double-digit touches of late, it's finally time to put him on your bench if you have a reliable alternative. ... Consider Morris as a flex play for this week, but that's about it. He's ill equipped to be an every-down back, and should really only be regarded as a fill-in for desperate owners.

HISTORY LESSON

The following players have tremendous recent track records against their scheduled opponents, making them more appealing fantasy options for this week.

Marc Bulger, QB, Rams (KC): He has passed for 300+ yards and three TDs in each of his past two home games. He's also 22-5 in his career at home, passing for two or more TDs 18 times and averaging 272.9 passing yards with 50 TDs and 22 interceptions in those 27 games.

Corey Dillon, RB, Patriots (IND): He has 73 carries for 434 yards (5.9 per carry, 108.5 ypg) and two TDs in his past four games vs. the Colts (postseason incl), twice topping 100 yards rushing. He also has 13 career rushing TDs in 13 prime time games.

Joey Galloway, WR, Buccaneers (NO): He has a TD in four straight games vs. the Saints, with 15 receptions for 241 yards and five TDs in those contests. He also has 75 receptions for 1,076 yards and 10 TDs in 17 home games as a member of the Buccaneers.

Rex Grossman, QB, Bears (MIA): He's a perfect 4-0 at home, completing 65.8 percent of his pass attempts and averaging 238.8 passing yards with 11 TDs and zero interceptions in those contests. He has two or more passing TDs in each home game this season.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Bengals (@BAL): He has 31 receptions for 495 yards and two TDs in his past four games vs. the Ravens, the yards representing the fifth-most by a player against BAL in a four game span. In three of those four games, he topped 100 yards receiving.

Thomas Jones, RB, Bears (MIA): He has 111 carries for 564 yards (5.1 yards per carry, 112.8 ypg) and two TDs in his past five games vs. AFC foes, four of them 100-yard efforts. He also has back-to-back 100-yard games at home, and three TD's in his past three home contests.

Peyton Manning, QB, Colts (@NE): He finally won at Foxborough for the first time in his career last Nov. 7, passing for 321 yards, three TDs and one interception. He also has thrown for 1,190 yards, 10 TDs and three interceptions in his past four games vs. the Patriots.

Deuce McAllister, RB, Saints (@TB): He had 15 carries for 123 yards and a TD in his previous game vs. the Buccaneers, in Week 5 (10/8/06). He also has four 100-yard rushing efforts and 701 total rushing yards (4.2 per carry, 100.1 ypg) in his past seven games vs. TB.

Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals (@BAL): He has won each of his past three starts vs. the Ravens, completing 70 of 92 pass attempts (76.1 percent) for 932 yards, eight TDs and two interceptions. He also has two 300-yard passing efforts in those three contests.

Roy Williams, WR, Lions (ATL): He had three receptions for 55 yards and one TD in his previous game vs. the Falcons (11/24/05). He also has three 100-yard receiving efforts and 37 receptions for 568 yards (81.1 ypg) and seven TDs in his past seven home games.

DAVID'S TAKE: Dillon continues to share time with Laurence Maroney in the New England backfield, but with him still getting the bulk of the work, he's a prime start against the Indianapolis rush defense, which ranks last in the league (167.9 ypg). Keep in mind the Colts have allowed 100-yard rushing efforts to Mike Bell (Week 8), Travis Henry (Week 5) and Maurice Jones-Drew (Week 3) in recent weeks, and Dillon's considered a bit more productive fantasy option overall than those three. ... The Bears positively dominate at home this season, outscoring their opponents 152-30 in their four wins. Grossman's home/road splits are astonishing; he has averaged 228.0 passing yards with two touchdowns and seven interceptions in his three road games by comparison. I'm not expecting as one-sided a performance for the Bears this week against the Dolphins, but it's still a must-start week for players like Grossman, Thomas Jones, Bernard Berrian and perhaps even Muhsin Muhammad and Desmond Clark. ... Palmer's lifetime numbers against the Ravens help demonstrate why many times, a player's talent overcomes what looks like a challenging matchup on paper. Maybe the Cincinnati offense is a bit shakier than the one he has been leading in the past, and perhaps that offensive line won't provide Palmer as much protection as in past games against the Ravens, but he's still too good a player to reserve this week. I wouldn't bench any of his receivers, either.

WEATHER REPORT

Up-to-the-minute conditions can be found on The Weather Channel's website.
Precipitation in the forecast (40-percent chance or worse): Raiders at Seahawks (70 percent).

Cold temperatures (40 degrees or lower): Packers at Bills and Colts at Patriots could be in the high 30s; Falcons at Lions, Texans at Giants and Broncos at Steelers could be in the low 40s.

Hot temperatures (80 degrees or higher): None.

Weatherproof games (safest playing conditions): Chiefs at Rams (Edward Jones Dome), Falcons at Lions (Ford Field).


KICKERS IN DOMES

As kickers are as a whole fairly unpredictable, weather can play a big part in determining which ones to use each week. Those who kick indoors are safest from the elements and therefore least likely to hurt you, making the names below more attractive plays. Statistics listed are career numbers indoors, unless otherwise noted (G: games, FGpct: field-goal percentage; XPTpct: extra-point percentage; ppg: points per game).

Morten Andersen, Falcons (@DET): 93 G, 80.9 FGpct, 100.0 XPTpct, 7.14 ppg.
Jason Hanson, Lions (ATL): 122 G, 83.8 FGpct, 99.2 XPTpct, 6.81 ppg.
Lawrence Tynes, Chiefs (@STL): 3 G, 100.0 FGpct, 100.0 XPTpct, 9.33 ppg.
Jeff Wilkins, Rams (KC): 96 G, 83.4 FGpct, 100.0 XPTpct, 7.63 ppg.

Jaguars are for real

With a big win on MNF over the Steelers, the Jaguars finally arrived. Well, for the rest of the world they did.

Going 12-4 last season, you would think the Jaguars would have garnered some attention from the media - but playing in a small (I mean, minature) market doesn't help them get exposure. The team America forgot reminded everyone why they are a force to be reckoned with, not that the Steelers needed to be reminded but they most certainly learned for good.

This was once a big rivalry, when both teams were in the same division four years ago. Both teams seem to battle for the lead of their division but then the league decided to change things around. Tonight, maybe that rivalry was somewhat re-kindled.

Billed as a hard-hitting defensive oriented game, it was going to come down to which team made the first mistake. Yet the team that did, the Jaguars with a Leftwich interception, did not pay for their crimes. Nor did, arguably, the Steelers as Rothlisberger in his first game of the new season (after undergoing like 20 offseason surgeries and miracles) threw 2 INTs which only resulted in a FG and a game ending kneel by the Jags offense.

9-0. It isn't how many points were put on the board, but the win that mattered. In fact, the Jaguars did generate a healthy offensive output but just were not able to punch it in the endzone. They initiated several opportunities but couldn't close the deal.

But make no mistake, the offensive talent is there and as this team plays together and gets more acquainted with Mike Tice's offensive play calling, they will start making up for it.

The defense was battle-tested again and demonstrated to be championship caliber. Mathis made strides to become one of the top CBs in the league with 2 INTs on the national stage - after having to defend Terrel Owens last week. Mike Peterson made play after play; the behemouth defensive line continued to stifle and suffocate one of the best offensive lines in the NFL all night.

The fans stayed to the last second. Leftwich, under much scrutiny, was last seen waving to the fans in the stands at the end of the game - with them showering him back with applause and praise.

See, all you have to do is earn respect. It isn't given lightly, you must work for it. And like Leftwich, the Jaguars may have done just that tonight for the rest of the football world.

Dade County football suffers bad weekend

Well, both the Canes lost and the Dolphins lost this weekend in what was shaping up to be a good weekend for football. The mood has dampered a lot with Cane fans talking more openly about not making a bowl game and also about their desire to be rid of headcoach Larry Coker.

The Dolphins, coming off their hard fought effort against Pittsburgh on NBC's debut of Thursday night football in which they lost, followed up with a possible patsy opponent in the Bills with yet another loss.

But it wasn't so much the losses that did the teams in and the fans, but the way both teams lost. Both teams just seemed to lose their swagger in the process.

The Dolphins couldn't mount a respectable attack against the Buffalo suddenly-juggernaut defense. Only 6 points, and a missed FG to boot for Mare, in their loss. Culpepper looked sloppy, confused, and not at all at full capacity. He kept slipping, tripping and even losing the football in his usually stable hands. His passes were off, and he was staring at his recievers like a fratboy at a kegger. Little went right, except for Ronnie Brown who managed to stay alive under a constant sea of Buffalo defenders.

As for the Canes? Well, the U went to the Useless as their offensive line just couldn't offer the protection they needed to get the offense going. And Louisville, a dark horse pick by some media members, was without their all-world QB Micheal Bush who is out for the season.

Maybe there is a beacon of light on the horizon. For the Dolphins, that should come as they gradually get Culpepper healthy and in rythmn with the new cast. But for the Canes, who knows - they have been falling for a long time now.

Florida State emerges with spotlight

The big game - UM and FSU are the definition of it. Not only do these two schools have a long and rivaled history against one another, with implications of national championships upon each meeting still, but they are also an institution of sorts.

ESPN kicked off its coverage of the college season with the fireworks that are ESPN Full Circle coverage. Spread over several channels, the coverage of this game was extensive going from the main telecast on ESPN to its mosaic-styled coverage on ESPN2 to online specials and even special coverage offered on its expanded stations like ESPNU.

And the game didn't disappoint. Several jarring hits popped helmets off. Speedy defenses recovered to suck up powerful, but frantic, offenses. Only 3 rushing yards allowed for the whole game by both defenses. It became a one dimensional grudge match where both teams scrapped through the air.

The rust was apparent: from the running games, the play calling, to the officiating which had to border on idiotic.

Yet, with the 13-10 win over their rivals, it is the Seminoles that emerge with the spoils and the spotlight. They are now on course for an ACC title match and possibly a national championship. While the Hurricanes are cast down back into the depths of the rankings from which they will have to fight to get out of.

Perhaps they will meet again in the ACC championship game.

But this is what happens when UM and FSU get together. They kick off the college season, they kick off the ACC season, and they restart a rivalry that not only serves as motivation for training camp and spring practice, but that could also shape the offseason recruiting process as well as possible national title hopes.

This is what college football is all about, and Florida State now embodies precisely that.